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Still, U.S. small businesses’ hiring plans have recently started to decline from a record level. Fed commenced raising the U.S. cash rate to a range of 0.25% and 0.50%. Since the start of 2022, the expectation around the number and speed of further rate hikes in 2022 has increased dramatically.
- The average P/E ratio for the S&P500 over the last 20 years is 15 times earnings.
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- Most economists forecast that the US Federal Reserve will keep the cash rate high into the middle of 2024, but some suggest the Fed will be able to start cutting rates as soon as the end of 2023.
- All the discussion below is based on a belief that we will manage to get the community spread of Covid Delta under control by the end of September, and the economy starts to reopen.
With only rare exceptions, they are people for whom we should be grateful. The government sets the charges (because it is usually the source of payment). The government rate is miserably low, making it very hard for rest home owners to make any meaningful surplus. Only in recent days have we been told that our current account deficit is now worse than Greece and Cyprus, sitting in the very bottom group of the world’s most blessed countries. If we have an under-resourced group appointed to seek ever more foreign money to fuel our desire to live beyond our means, then we have a real, scary problem. The hour-long seminars aim to help investors survive an era of investment uncertainty.
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This suggests that there will be continued pressure on US inflation, pushing back to the 1 – 3% range that the US Federal Reserve wants to see before cutting rates. According to REINZ data complied by Opes Partners, NZ average property prices have declined 18% from their peak in February 2022 to May 2023. Wellington is still leading the drop with a 25.4% decline, followed closely by Auckland, down 21.6% from their respective peaks. Even though the NZ business community feels less pessimistic, the Consumer Confidence Index shows that consumers remain close to their most pessimistic on record. China is now exporting disinflation (an annualised decrease in the inflation rate) to all its trading partners as the cost of goods shipped worldwide declines. We now wait to see if the Central Banks can manifest a soft landing (no recession).
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When the conditions are deteriorating, wise banks reward those who reduce risk, eliminate expense (like bad debts), and downsize banking balance sheets. So they visit their major clients, demand a genuinely independent valuation of their assets, and insist on debt reduction, creating new, tougher covenants. Provincia is Auckland based, focuses on industrial property, aims to pay around 6% gross and relies on the Australian-owned trading platform Syndex to provide (sparse) Best casino sites New Zealand liquidity for investors wanting to cash up. In today’s environment, 6% is a poor return, given the liquidity issue.
Below is a chart from Westpac’s economists showing house price and rent inflation over the past 19-years. This shows that house prices are up over 3.6 times (c.7% p.a.) over this period whereas rents have only increased by about 1.8 times (c.3% p.a.). You cannot go to a BBQ or catch up over a beer/wine without property prices coming into the discussion.
When considering what might be a suitable entry-level to buy into falling share markets, one of the indicators we consider is the Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio. This indicates the multiple that the share price is above the 12-month forecast earnings. The average P/E ratio for the S&P500 over the last 20 years is 15 times earnings. After the recent drop in share prices, the market is now trading at this level. New Zealand house prices continue to fall as the sharpest increase in interest rates in four decades decreases the affordability of properties. Before this sell-off, New Zealand had one of the world’s most overpriced housing markets.
The US 10-year bond rate is used as the “risk free rate” for investments with an expected duration of 10-years or more. Investors then demand extra interest above the risk-free rate to compensate them for the perceived higher risk of other investments. As an example, if we were trying to determine the yield we needed from a share, we would start with the risk-free rate (1.66%) and may require an extra 3% (spread) to justify the higher risk of the share. The high expectation of rising inflation is mainly due to economies starting to come out of lockdown as they vaccinate their citizens. This is leading to an increase in demand for goods as consumers look to spend some of their savings. The lower level of supply to meet this demand is the main reason most economists are forecasting a spike in inflation in late 2021.
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